5:00 AM: This is Kluis Commodity Advisors with your opening grain comments for Thursday March 21, 2019. US grain prices still remain in a very quiet, lackluster, narrow trading range. It is almost as if the market is trying to put everyone to sleep. Talks with China continue to progress. However, the market is running out of patience, and wants to see some action–enough with the talk already. Lean hog futures have been on a tear lately. China has been buying a lot of US hogs as they restock their supply, which was depleted by the African Swine Fever outbreak. In the overnight markets, corn is up 1 cent, soybeans are up 2 cents and wheat futures are 1-2 cents per bushel higher.
To do: No new recommendations. Click here to review our current recommendations.
What I think: The Fed’s announcement of “no more interest rate hikes this year” in the US has many traders thinking we could possibly see an interest rate reduction by the year-end. This news put pressure on the US dollar. That is positive to US grain and meat prices.
Global Stock Markets: The stock market in China is up 0.3%, Japanese stocks are up 0.2% and European stocks are down 0.3%.
Outside Markets: The US Dollar Index is up 0.16 points at 96.06, crude oil is down 9 cents at $60.14 per barrel, the S&P futures are down 1 point at 2,826 and gold is up $16 per ounce at $1,318.
Livestock futures: Livestock futures closed higher on Wednesday. April Hogs closed up $3.00 at $73.82 and April Cattle closed up 45 cents at $129.47.
Today’s chart: Soybeans
About this chart: This is the daily soybean continuation chart. The gap on the chart is from when March soybean futures went off the board and we rolled to the May contract. Typically we fill those gaps within the first two weeks of showing up. In addition, I have a horizontal line on the chart at $9.10 ¾. This is the 62% retracement level from the $9.31 ¼ high to the selloff to $8.78 ½. We are finding a lot of resistance in the $9.10 to $9.11 area. If you are under 70% sold on old crop soybeans, then use a rally to around $9.10 to get caught up.
Overnight markets…
May Corn: The trading range is 3 cents; prices are up 1 at $3.72. Resistance is at $3.74 with support at $3.63.
May Soybeans: The trading range is 3 cents; prices are up 2 cents at $9.08. Resistance is at $9.24 with support at $8.98.
Wheat: CBOT wheat is up 1 cent; Minneapolis wheat is down 1 cent and KC Wheat futures are up 2 cents.
What to watch: Weekly export sales will be released at 7:30 am. Here are the estimates: wheat 350,000-1,200,000 metric tons, corn 600,000-1,300,000 metric tons, soybeans 800,000-1,500,000 metric tons and soybean meal 100,000-400,000 metric tons.